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جنگ اوکراین و نظم انرژیمحور جهانی | ||
| پژوهشنامه روابط جهانی | ||
| مقاله 5، دوره 1، شماره 4، دی 1403 | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22054/jrgr.2025.82934.1100 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| شهاب الدین شکری* 1؛ عباس ملکی2 | ||
| 1استادیار کشاورزی و علوم پایه واحد رودهن، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، رودهن، ایران. | ||
| 2استاد انرژی دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| با عملیات نظامی روسیه در اوکراین در 24 فوریه 2024، بسته فشردهای از تحریمها با هدف شکست هژمون انرژی روسیه از سوی اتحادیه اروپا و با همراهی آمریکا و سایر شرکا با هدف تغییر رفتار این کشور طراحی شدند که به لحاظ ماهیت و هدف با تحریمهای 2014 یا «کریمه-محور» متفاوت بودند. در بسته هشتم نیز تأکید شد که «ما در مسیر رهایی از وابستگی به انرژی روسیه هستیم». با توجه به اینکه چالش اوکراین محرک راهبرد غرب در کاهش وابستگی به انرژی هیدروکربوری روسیه شده است، هدف این تحقیق، بررسی اشکال نظمبندی بر مدار انرژی است و سؤال این است که پوتینیسم به عنوان الگویی از دولت سازی انرژی محور در نظم در حال گذار جهانی چگونه بازتعریف میشود؟ در این تحقیق از تحلیل همبستگی سریهای زمانی و نیز آزمونهای مقایسه میانگین سریها در بازه 2000 تا 2023 در چارچوب ناسیونالیسم منابع استفاده شده است. یافتهها نشان میدهند که در سه سناریوی اول، اهمیت چین در شکلدهی نظم جهانی برجسته شده است و در صورت عدم اهتمام روسیه به توسعه اقتصاد فناور محور، نظم اوراسیایی چینی در بلندمدت، روسیه را در مدار چین قرار خواهد داد. در سناریوی چهارم، شکلگیری نظام چندقطبی در صورت پیروزی روسیه قوت یافته است. در نهایت، در پاسخ به سؤال تحقیق میتوان گفت که جنگ اوکراین با تشدید واگرایی میان پوتینیسم و انرژی، نظم چندضلعی نامتوازن به محوریت چین را قوت بخشیده است. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| اقتصاد روسیه؛ اوکراین؛ ولادیمیر پوتین؛ سیاست خارجی روسیه؛ نظم جهانی | ||
| مراجع | ||
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فارسی
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شکیبی، ژ. (1397). روسیه و غرب انگاری، تهران: انتشارات موسسه مطالعات ایران و اوراسیا.
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سمیعی اصفهانی, ع. ر. فرحمند, س. (1401). جنگ روسیه-اوکراین و آینده نظم بینالمللی. مطالعات آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز، 28(118)، 87-113.
Translated References into English Bagheri, R. and Kazami, A. (2024). The re-securitization of Russia by NATO and Western countries based on the theory of collective security. Journal of Countries Studies, 1(4), 607-630. doi: 10.22059/jcountst.2023.363511.1051 [In Persian].
Shakibi, Zh. (2019). Russia and the Politics of Occidentalism. Tehran: IRAS. [In Persian] Mirfakhraei, S. H. (2024). The crisis in Ukraine and the change in the polarization of the international system; Repercussions on the strategic partnership of Iran and Russia. Journal of Countries Studies, 1(4), 557-578. doi: 10.22059/jcountst.2023.361560.1041 [In Persian].
Samiei Esfahani, A. R., Farahmand, S. (2023). Russia-Ukraine War and the Future of the International Order. The Caucasus Studies and Central Asia, 28(118), 87-113. [In Persian].
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