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زینال پور, سیما, یعقوبی, سعید, سهرابی, طهمورث. (1404). مدل‌سازی ریسک‌های زنجیره ‌تأمین صنایع خودرویی در افق زمان: ترکیب مدل‌های میانگین‌گیری بیزین غیرخطی و پارامتر متغیر زمان پانلی. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 23(77), 271-328. doi: 10.22054/jims.2025.85678.2969
سیما زینال پور; سعید یعقوبی; طهمورث سهرابی. "مدل‌سازی ریسک‌های زنجیره ‌تأمین صنایع خودرویی در افق زمان: ترکیب مدل‌های میانگین‌گیری بیزین غیرخطی و پارامتر متغیر زمان پانلی". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 23, 77, 1404, 271-328. doi: 10.22054/jims.2025.85678.2969
زینال پور, سیما, یعقوبی, سعید, سهرابی, طهمورث. (1404). 'مدل‌سازی ریسک‌های زنجیره ‌تأمین صنایع خودرویی در افق زمان: ترکیب مدل‌های میانگین‌گیری بیزین غیرخطی و پارامتر متغیر زمان پانلی', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 23(77), pp. 271-328. doi: 10.22054/jims.2025.85678.2969
زینال پور, سیما, یعقوبی, سعید, سهرابی, طهمورث. مدل‌سازی ریسک‌های زنجیره ‌تأمین صنایع خودرویی در افق زمان: ترکیب مدل‌های میانگین‌گیری بیزین غیرخطی و پارامتر متغیر زمان پانلی. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1404; 23(77): 271-328. doi: 10.22054/jims.2025.85678.2969

مدل‌سازی ریسک‌های زنجیره ‌تأمین صنایع خودرویی در افق زمان: ترکیب مدل‌های میانگین‌گیری بیزین غیرخطی و پارامتر متغیر زمان پانلی

مطالعات مدیریت صنعتی
مقاله 7، دوره 23، شماره 77، تیر 1404، صفحه 271-328    اصل مقاله (991.61 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22054/jims.2025.85678.2969
نویسندگان
سیما زینال پور1؛ سعید یعقوبی* 2؛ طهمورث سهرابی3
1دانشجوی دکتری، گروه ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺻﻨﻌﺘﯽ، واحد تهران مرکزی، داﻧﺸﮕﺎه آزاد اﺳﻼﻣﯽ، تهران، ایران
2دانشیار گروه مهندسی لجستیک و زنجیره تامین، دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران
3اﺳﺘﺎدﯾﺎر ﮔﺮوه ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺻﻨﻌﺘﯽ، واحد تهران مرکزی، داﻧﺸﮕﺎه آزاد اﺳﻼﻣﯽ، تهران، ایران
چکیده
تفاوت دقت بالای مدل‌های میانگین‌گیری بیزین غیرخطی، نسبت به مدل‌های کلاسیک نشان‌دهنده شکست مدل‌های کلاسیک است. مدل‌های کلاسیک توانایی لازم جهت تعیین مدل بهینه را ندارند و همواره از یک الگوی از پیش تعیین‌شده پیروی می‌نمایند. بر این اساس جهت ارتقای این شکاف از هیبرید مدل‌های میانگین‌گیری بیزین غیرخطی و پارامتر متغیر زمان پانلی جهت مدل‌سازی ریسک صنعت خودرو بهره گرفته شده است. بازه زمانی تحقیق حاضر از سال 1390 تا 1402 بوده و در این تحقیق از اطلاعات 57 شرکت فعال در حوزه صنعت خودرو در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران استفاده‌ شده است. 119 ریسک مؤثر بر زنجیره ‌تأمین صنعت خودرو شناسایی شد. بر اساس رویکردهای میانگین‌گیری بیزین غیرخطی 15 شاخص ریسک غیرسیستماتیک و 13 ریسک سیستماتیک، بر زنجیره ‌تأمین به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین ریسک‌ها شناسایی شدند. پس از شناسایی عوامل اقدام به بررسی این عوامل در طی زمان بر زنجیره تأمین صنایع خودرویی بر اساس رویکرد TVP-PFAVR پرداخته شد. با عنایت به این‌که نسبت معناداری ریسک سیستماتیک بر زنجیره ‌تأمین از ریسک غیرسیستماتیک بالاتر است، ثبات فضای اقتصادی و کسب‌وکار، حکمرانی خوب و فضای سیاسی نسبت به ثبات مدیریتی می‌بایست در دستور کار قرار بگیرد. در حقیقت، سیاست‌های تثبیتی در قالب سیاست‌های سمت تقاضا شامل سیاست‌های پولی-مالی، بهتر است در جهت کاهش ریسک‌های اقتصادی-مالی زنجیره تأمین صنعت خودرو قرار بگیرد. همچنین، باعنایت به معناداری شاخص‌های محدودیت ‌تأمین مالی در ایجاد ریسک سیستماتیک، رتبه‌بندی شرکت‌های صنعت خودرو جهت تخصیص بهینه منابع مالی به این شرکت‌ها اکیداً توصیه می‌گردد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
زنجیره تأمین؛ ریسک سیستماتیک و غیرسیستماتیک؛ صنعت خودرو؛ رویکرد بیزین؛ پارامتر متغیر زمان پانلی
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آمار
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