| تعداد نشریات | 63 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 2,282 |
| تعداد مقالات | 18,831 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 59,343,536 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 30,353,285 |
Analysis of Risk Trends, Capital Structure Stability, and Profitability Potential of Iranian Listed Companies Using Numerical Risk Scoring and Fuzzy Logic | ||
| Journal of Mathematics and Modeling in Finance | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 01 اسفند 1404 اصل مقاله (966.28 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Original Article | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22054/jmmf.2026.88826.1225 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Zahra Heydari Marbari1؛ Effat Golpar-Raboky* 1؛ Seyedeh Narges Mirei2 | ||
| 1Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Qom, Qom, Iran | ||
| 2Department of Computer Science, University of Qom, Qom, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| This study analyzes the trend of risk and profitability of 60 Iranian listed companies during the period of 2015 to 2022. The research data was extracted from the audited financial statements of these companies and includes key financial variables such as Debt to Equity ratio, Current Ratio, Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), Net Profit Margin, Operating Margin, and Asset Turnover. After normalizing the indicators and numerical scoring based on weighted average, the risk level of the companies was calculated. Then, using a fuzzy logic model, the impact of liquidity and asset variables on profit before tax was analyzed. The results show that most companies are at a medium to low risk level, and in some companies, an upward trend in risk has been accompanied by a decrease in profitability. The application of the fuzzy model has been able to better model the non-linear and complex relationships between financial indicators and can be useful for assessing profitability potential. In addition, to assess the stability of companies' capital structure, fluctuations in the debt-to-equity ratio were analyzed using a 3-year moving average. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Financial risk؛ profitability potential؛ Fuzzy logic؛ IranStock Exchange؛ Capital stability | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
[1] M. Sanchez-Roger, M. D. Oliver-Alfonso, and C. Sanchis Pedregosa, Fuzzy Logic and Its Uses in Finance: A Systematic Review exploring its potential to deal with banking crises, Mathematics, 7(11) (2019), 1091.
[2] S. Hašková, P. Šuleř, and R. Kuchár, A Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Evaluation System for Share Price Prediction: A tesla case study, Mathematics, 11(13) (2023), pp. 3033.
[3] J. Choi, and M. Richardson, The volatility of a firm’s assets and the leverage effect, Journal of Financial Economics, 121(2) (2016), 254-277.
[4] D. Krygier and A. Vilhelmsson, Equity Volatility and Leverage–Loan Level Evidence, Available at SSRN 3722492, (2020).
[5] M. Gallab, H. Bouloiz, Y. L. Alaoui, and M. Tkiouat, Risk assessment of maintenance activities using fuzzy logic, Procedia Computer Science, 148 (2019), pp. 226–235.
[6] L. A. Zade, Fuzzy sets, Information and Control, 8(3) (1965), pp. 338–353.
[7] S. M. Chen, Fuzzy multiple criteria decision-making methods and applications, Information Sciences, 128(1-4) (2000), pp. 1–18.
[8] D. Farid, and M. Pourhamidi, Classifying Stocks of Listed Companies on Tehran Stock Exchange Using Fuzzy Cluster Analysis, Financial Accounting Research, 4(3) (2012), pp. 105-128.
[9] M. Mirlohi, and N. Mohammadi Todeshki, Portfolio Optimization Using Hierarchical and Denotation Clustering in Tehran Stock Exchange, Journal of Investment Knowledge, 9(34) (2020), pp. 333-354.
[10] M. Masjed-Mousavi, M. Mir Sajad, S. Khalafi, A. Sepideh, Z. Ashrafi, and B. Zahra, Stock price prediction in the securities exchange market using a neuro-fuzzy network [Article in Persian], Journal of Accounting Management and Economic Affairs, 2(11) (2025), pp. 22–35. https://lajournal.ir/fa/paper.php?pid=171
[11] S. Bahrami, A. Sotoudeh, N. Jamshidi, and M. R. Elmi, Environmental risk assessment of Kermanshah petrochemical complex using FMEA method, Advanced Environmental Sciences, 16(3) (2018), pp. 1-24.
[12] H. I. Kure, S. Islam, M. Ghazanfar, A. Raza, and M. Pasha, Asset criticality and risk prediction for an effective cybersecurity risk management of cyber-physical system, Neural Computing and Applications, 34(1) (2022), 493-514. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 267 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 69 |
||