The average wait time to see a trend in the prices of gold coin by using partially exchangeable sequence | ||
| پژوهشهای اقتصادی ایران | ||
| Article 6, Volume 18, Issue 55, July 2013, Pages 141-158 PDF (291.76 K) | ||
| Authors | ||
| Gholamali Parham1; Bahareh Azizi2 | ||
| 1Associate Professor in Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz | ||
| 2M.A. Student in Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz | ||
| Abstract | ||
| In this article, the monthly data of Bahar Azadi gold coin price is studied by using Partially Exchangeable Sequences for a period of 27 years. The data based on the increasing or decreasing prices in comparison to the previous month generate a sequence of success and failure runs. The goal is to obtain the trend of ascending or descending of coin price by using runs. First, we verify partially exchangeability and determine the order of dependency data by using Monte Carlo simulation. Then, we determine the expected waiting time to achieve the first success runs of different lengths. The results show that the data are partially exchangeable with order one, and the average time to observe an increasing trend of the price of coin for the maximum six months is predictable. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Runs; Exchangeable; Markov Chain; Partially Exchangeable | ||
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