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Analysis of Risk Trends, Capital Structure Stability, and Profitability Potential of Iranian Listed Companies Using Numerical Risk Scoring and Fuzzy Logic | ||
| Journal of Mathematics and Modeling in Finance | ||
| دوره 6، شماره 2، مهر 2026، صفحه 1-18 اصل مقاله (966.28 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Article | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22054/jmmf.2026.88826.1225 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Zahra Heydari Marbari1؛ Effat Golpar-Raboky* 1؛ Seyedeh Narges Mirei2 | ||
| 1Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Qom, Qom, Iran | ||
| 2Department of Computer Science, University of Qom, Qom, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| This study analyzes the trend of risk and profitability of 60 Iranian listed companies during the period of 2015 to 2022. The research data was extracted from the audited financial statements of these companies and includes key financial variables such as Debt to Equity ratio, Current Ratio, Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), Net Profit Margin, Operating Margin, and Asset Turnover. After normalizing the indicators and numerical scoring based on weighted average, the risk level of the companies was calculated. Then, using a fuzzy logic model, the impact of liquidity and asset variables on profit before tax was analyzed. The results show that most companies are at a medium to low risk level, and in some companies, an upward trend in risk has been accompanied by a decrease in profitability. The application of the fuzzy model has been able to better model the non-linear and complex relationships between financial indicators and can be useful for assessing profitability potential. In addition, to assess the stability of companies' capital structure, fluctuations in the debt-to-equity ratio were analyzed using a 3-year moving average. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Financial risk؛ profitability potential؛ Fuzzy logic؛ IranStock Exchange؛ Capital stability | ||
| مراجع | ||
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